JAN 28: Europe Reasserts Control, U.S. Immigration Pressures Rise, China Advances
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Quick note: our January off-the-record meeting is this Friday.
We’ll focus on where 193 currently stands, what I’m hearing in recent diplomatic conversations, and how it all fits into the broader global picture — plus time for Q&A.
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QUICK NEWS TO BEGIN
The death toll from the weekend’s severe winter storm in the United States has risen to at least 30, according to officials. Ice and extreme cold have caused the most damage across the southern U.S., from Texas to Tennessee, triggering widespread power outages that have left hundreds of thousands without electricity. Roughly 175 million people remain under cold alerts, with frigid temperatures expected to persist for days. The cold is setting new daily record lows across the Plains, with additional records forecast in the South and East through at least this week.
Washington is racing toward a partial government shutdown as tensions escalate over President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement agenda. Senators and the White House are scrambling to find an off-ramp, but options are narrowing. In the wake of the Minnesota shooting, Democrats are pushing Republicans to strip funding for the Department of Homeland Security from a sweeping spending package. Any changes would require further action by the House, which is not scheduled to return until February 2 — after a shutdown would begin at 12:01 a.m. on January 31.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signaled little urgency to resume cuts following three contentious reductions at recent meetings. In a 10–2 vote, the Fed kept the benchmark federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell said recent data showed stronger economic growth and tentative signs of labor-market stabilization compared to the Fed’s previous meeting. Meanwhile, President Trump has narrowed his shortlist for Powell’s replacement to four candidates, though none appear to fully align with his preferences. Importantly, rate decisions are made collectively — eleven other Fed officials will vote on interest rates this year.
U.S. stocks finished mixed as the Fed’s message largely matched Wall Street expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up less than 0.1%, the S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Gold, however, surged to new highs, posting its largest one-day gain in nearly six years and settling above $5,300 per troy ounce for the first time.
U.S. population growth fell to one of the lowest rates in the country’s history between July 2024 and June 2025, according to Census data released yesterday. The slowdown was driven primarily by a sharp drop in immigration, with net immigration adding about 1.3 million people — less than half the number added the previous year under the Biden administration. The Census estimates current trends could push the U.S. toward net negative migration. The data comes amid the Trump administration’s push to reduce immigration and growing backlash over enforcement tactics.
Context: The U.S. population grew just 0.5% over the past year. The only lower growth rate on record occurred in 2021, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. birth rate also declined, continuing a downward trend that began after the 2008 financial crisis.FBI agents carried out a court-authorized search of Fulton County’s main election center in Georgia as the Trump administration ramps up efforts to “re-examine” the 2020 election. The bureau confirmed the operation but declined to provide further details. County officials said the warrant sought records related to the 2020 election. The Justice Department has not commented. Fulton County was a focal point of Trump’s efforts to overturn President Joe Biden’s victory.
The Department of Veterans Affairs quietly imposed a near-total ban on abortion through a new rule published on New Year’s Eve. Doctors and veterans warn the change could put women’s lives at risk.
A historic trial against Meta and YouTube is underway in Los Angeles, marking the first time the two social media giants are defending themselves before a jury against claims that their platforms harm young people’s mental health. For years, parents, advocates, health experts, and teens have warned that social media fuels addiction, enables bullying, disrupts sleep, and exposes minors to harmful content. Despite repeated congressional hearings, U.S. regulators have imposed few consequences — until now.
Tesla announced a $2 billion investment in Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, xAI, even as the automaker reported a fourth-quarter drop in sales and profits — though results still exceeded Wall Street expectations. Elsewhere in tech, Microsoft said its OpenAI partnership is paying off but acknowledged higher-than-expected infrastructure spending. Meta reported record fourth-quarter sales and sharply increased its projected 2026 spending, signaling no slowdown in its AI expansion.
Amazon said it will cut roughly 16,000 corporate jobs. Amazon also announced it will close all of its Fresh and Go stores, converting some locations into Whole Foods outlets.
UPS said it will cut an additional 30,000 jobs as it continues unwinding its partnership with Amazon.
In Europe, electric vehicles outsold gas-powered cars for the first time in December, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. Hybrid vehicles continued to outsell both categories. EV sales rose despite a proposal last month by Brussels to scrap the 2035 ban on new combustion-engine car sales.
MOMENTS
President Trump:
“Visa is creating a brand new platform that will allow credit card holders to deposit their cash back rewards directly into Trump Accounts.”
Deutsche Welle:
“On suspicion of money laundering, the judiciary is searching the buildings of Germany’s largest financial institution Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt and Berlin. Unknown employees are under investigation, according to the Frankfurt prosecutor’s office.”
Secretary Rubio on Venezuela:
“Oil proceeds are being deposited into what’ll ultimately become US Treasury blocked account here in US. We will say ‘this is what this money can be spent on.’ They will submit to us budget request ‘we want to use the money on these things.’ Part of proceeds will go to fund an audit process.”
Rubio on NATO:
“The reason why you need such a strong U.S. backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years ... NATO is going to be stronger if our allies are more capable.”
EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas:
“We were naive for years about technological dependence because we didn’t feel that it’s a dependency. We were naive in trusting. Take chemicals. Over 50% of chemicals come from China. Over 90% of batteries and critical raw materials come from one supplier.”
Kaja Kallas on European defense:
“Europe is no longer Washington’s primary center of gravity. The shift has been ongoing for a while. It is structural, not temporary. No great power in history has ever outsourced its survival and survived. The risk of a return to coercive power politics and a world where might makes right is very real. Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney hit the nail on its head in his own speech in Davos: it’s time also for Europe to take down its sign. We are now dangerously close to the third bell.”
Canadian Prime Minister Carney on Holocaust Remembrance Day:
“Elie Wiesel warned us that “to forget the dead would be to kill them a second time.” Canada will not forget, so that “Never Again” remains forever true.”
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
As many as 325,000 Russian troops and 140,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion nearly four years ago, according to a new estimate by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Total Russian casualties, including wounded and missing, may now reach 1.2 million — the highest number suffered by any major power since World War II. Moscow and Kyiv rarely publish official figures; the report relies on Western intelligence estimates.
President Zelenskyy:
“The Russians are preparing a new massive strike – our intelligence indicates this. The United States, Europe, and all our partners have to understand how this discredits diplomatic talks. Every single Russian strike does.”
Chancellor Merz on Ukraine’s EU accession timeline [by Jan 1, 2027]:
“All members, including Ukraine, that wish to join the European Union must fulfill the Copenhagen criteria. These processes usually take several years. We can gradually bring Ukraine closer to the European Union along this path, but such a rapid accession is simply not feasible.”
Secretary of State Rubio:
“At the moment, Russia has not given its consent to the security guarantees for Ukraine that were reached by the USA and the European Union countries.”
Russia signaled readiness for a Zelenskyy–Putin meeting — but only if Ukraine’s president travels to Moscow, with the Kremlin stating “it would ensure Zelenskyy’s security”.
Zelenskyy on a call with President Macron:
“I briefed him on the frontline situation and Russian losses… We discussed diplomatic efforts… countering Russia’s shadow fleet… and strengthening our energy resilience. In the near future, Ukraine will receive generators from France… additional deliveries this year of French aircraft, missiles for air defense systems, and aerial bombs. Thank you!”
GREENLAND
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen visited France this week. Nielsen thanked President Macron for France’s support, saying Greenland “will not forget this.”
Macron, speaking in both Greenlandic and Danish, stated:
“Greenland is not for sale and cannot be taken,” emphasizing that only Greenlanders can decide their future. He reaffirmed France’s support for the Kingdom of Denmark and called for stronger Arctic defense cooperation.
AUSTRIA
Austria’s NEOS party has initiated proceedings to strip former Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl of her citizenship. Kneissl, who now lives in Russia, recently called Austrians “hyenas” and said she misses France but not Austria. NEOS argues her activities damage Austria’s reputation and serve Vladimir Putin’s interests. Kneissl served as foreign minister from 2017 to 2019 and later joined Rosneft’s board.
UAE
A leading UAE technology university unveiled a new AI model aimed at competing with top U.S. and Chinese systems. The university’s president said the project addresses a transparency gap in Western models. An analyst from Artificial Analysis described it as “the most intelligent model at this level of openness.”
NORTH KOREA
North Korea launched short-range ballistic missiles into its eastern waters on January 27, escalating tensions with South Korea ahead of a major political meeting.
CHINA
Satellite imagery suggests China is preparing to reclaim land on another reef in the South China Sea for a new military base. At the same time, Beijing demonstrated how fleets of fishing vessels could support future combat operations against Taiwan.
TAIWAN
Senior U.S. and Taiwanese officials held talks in Washington focused on technology and economic cooperation. Taiwan endorsed the Trump administration’s “Pax Silica” initiative aimed at securing shared access to materials critical for semiconductors and AI.
IRAQ
U.S.–Iraq tensions rose after President Trump warned that the U.S. would “no longer help Iraq” if former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki returns to power. Al-Maliki rejected what he called “blatant American interference.” An Iraqi parliamentary vote to select the next president was delayed amid ongoing consultations.
IRAN
Trump called on Iran to agree to a deal guaranteeing it will not obtain nuclear weapons, warning the U.S. could strike again if it refuses. He said U.S. naval forces in the region are ready to act with “speed and violence, if necessary.” Saudi Arabia and the UAE both stated the U.S. could not use their airspace for an attack on Iran.
On January 23, 2026, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution condemning Iran’s “brutal repression” of protests and extending its fact-finding mission for two years.
SYRIA
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, during a visit to the Kremlin, told Putin:
“Coming from the airport, I saw a large amount of snow… I remembered how many military campaigns some parties tried to reach Moscow, and then how they failed… So we ask God for its safety always.”
GAZA
Today, the UN Security Council held a high-level debate on the Middle East, focusing on Gaza, the humanitarian crisis, unrest in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and the future of UNRWA.
State of Palestine at the UNSC:
“We are obliged to underscore yet again: Israel is not the sovereign in the Palestinian territory… Gaza is an integral part of the Palestinian territory. It belongs to the Palestinian people, nobody else.”
RWANDA
Rwanda filed a legal complaint in The Hague against the UK over unpaid obligations tied to a canceled migration deal. Prime Minister Keir Starmer scrapped the policy after taking office in 2024, further straining bilateral relations.
UK
Cambodia and the UK strengthened economic ties during the Third Joint Trade and Investment Forum in Phnom Penh.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer arrived in China, becoming the first British prime minister to visit in eight years.
The UK also launched a new North Sea Future Board to drive investment, support skilled workers, and advance a sustainable transition. The move follows a historic clean energy pact with the EU to develop 100 GW of offshore wind capacity.
AFRICAN UNION
The U.S. and African Union announced the creation of a Strategic Infrastructure and Investment Working Group in Addis Ababa, focusing on trade-enabling infrastructure, digital transformation, energy, critical minerals, and supply chains — prioritizing “investment-driven growth over aid” under Agenda 2063 and AfCFTA.
HUMANITY
Ali Akbar, the last Parisian news vendor still shouting headlines on the streets, has been appointed Knight of the National Order of Merit — honoring a disappearing craft and a lifelong devotion to the printed word.
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